The Future of Indian Democracy: Modi's Second Term and the Rise of Political Strongmen
As the Indian general election approaches in 2019, the specter of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's second term stirs concerns among liberal democrats and international observers alike. Some view his potential re-election as a potential setback for India's democratic institutions and secular traditions, much as the election of Donald Trump in the U.S. has alarmed American liberals. This article delves into the implications of a Modi-led government, exploring the risks involved and the global democratic stakes at play.
Global Context: The Rise of Non-Liberal States
The results of the 2019 Indian general election may not only impact India but also resonate with global democratic movements. With the rise of what Robert Kagan terms 'non-liberal' states worldwide, India's political landscape has become a focal point. India's unique history and the manner in which its constitutional rights have been protected have set it apart from traditional Western liberal models. Nonetheless, the election of Narendra Modi could signal a significant departure from these principles, raising concerns among those who hope to see a halt to the rise of political strongmen.
Post-Election Outlook
According to exit polls, it is likely that Narendra Modi will secure a second term as Prime Minister, leading to a continuation of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government. However, this does not necessarily portend a stronger and more authoritarian regime. The risks to India's democratic future are real, but panic is premature unless we assume that Modi will become an increasingly dominant strongman.
Modi's Political Tactics and Policies
Modi's campaign for the 2019 election has taken a significant turn, focusing more on ethno-religious themes rather than development. His rhetoric has been notably harsh, targeting Muslim-majority Pakistan and Muslim migrants from Bangladesh. This aggressive campaign strategy presents major challenges for India's democratic institutions, particularly given the deterioration of important state institutions such as the central bank and supreme court.
The Modi-Indira Gandhi Comparison
A comparison between Modi and Indira Gandhi, modern India's most authoritarian leader, looms large in the minds of critics. Modi's actions, particularly his attacks on a corrupt elite, have raised concerns about the erosion of democratic principles. Historian Gyan Prakash, a left-wing Princeton University professor, has noted that Modi's rule bears uncanny similarities to that of Gandhi during the period known as 'the Emergency,' when constitutional freedoms were suspended.
The Threat of Constitutional Changes
The fear among India's critics is that a re-elected Modi would seek to make significant changes to the country's constitutional order. These changes would aim to bolster his own authority and affirm Hinduism as a de facto state religion. This scenario would echo the patterns seen in other autocratic regimes, where initial moderate stances give way to increasing authoritarianism over time.
Conclusion
The approaching 2019 Indian general election is not just a domestic affair; it carries significant implications for global democratic movements. While the prospects for a second Modi government present numerous challenges, it is essential to maintain a critical yet measured perspective. The key will be to monitor the stability and continuity of democratic institutions in India and ensure that any potential threats are addressed in a timely and effective manner.