Ukraine’s 2024 Presidential Race: Zelenskyy Continues to Lead While Elections Remain Uncertain
In the chaotic landscape of modern Ukraine, the future of presidential elections remains uncertain, especially concerning Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Since the invasion of Ukraine, Zelenskyy’s ratings have skyrocketed, and he remains a frontrunner in any upcoming elections. However, the political landscape is complex, and several factors come into play.
Speculations About Zelenskyy's Ambitions
Some speculate that Zelenskyy might 'forget' about calling for elections in a manner reminiscent of post-Soviet politics, where future elections are indefinitely postponed. As the longest ongoing conflict since the Cold War, the upcoming elections could be influenced by how the war progresses. If the war ends in a way that allows him to remain in control, Zelenskyy's re-election would become more likely; otherwise, political and social chaos might ensue.
Clarification on Political Allegiances
It's important to clarify that the author has no connection to Ihor Kolomoyski. Both being Ukrainian Jews, the similarities in name are coincidental. The focus of the article is on analyzing the current political situation and potential outcomes rather than delving into personal or political conflicts.
Elections Uncertainty and Public Opinion
Recent polls, conducted as recently as April 2023, show that a significant majority of Ukrainians plan to vote for Zelenskyy in the 2024 presidential elections. This is unsurprising given his high approval ratings. However, the question remains: will the war end in a way that allows him to be re-elected? If Ukraine, or at least its population, perceives a victory in the conflict, Zelenskyy’s chances of re-election significantly increase. A prolonged stalemate could lead to political and social chaos, potentially derailing his campaign.
Past and Future Political Credibility
During his first term, Zelenskyy faced challenges from the opposition, including efforts to discredit and impeach him. However, he maintained strong public support, being perceived as the most trusted president in several polls. His advantage over the 'old establishment' of oligarchs and political figures is clear, as these groups lack credibility among the public.
While Zelenskyy's re-election is favored by current polls, it's crucial to acknowledge that the political landscape is in a state of flux. General Zaluzhnyi, a prominent figure in the Ukrainian military, is unlikely to run for president, as he appears more interested in his current role rather than another political term.
The structural integrity of Ukrainian institutions and the governance framework will be further tested in the aftermath of the war. If the war ends and Zelenskyy can consolidate power without expanding his role as a personality-driven figure, the institutions might gain more stability. However, if he does run for a second term, the likelihood of his re-election is high, given the current public sentiment and his track record.
Ultimately, the future of Ukrainian elections and the political future of Zelenskyy will depend on the outcome of the current conflict and the ability of his administration to address the nation's needs.